A third of UK adults who shop online expect to keep the same number of subscriptions when new cancellation rules take effect, according to research from Paxon.
The online YouGov survey of more than 2,000 UK adults aged 18 and over found that 34% of online shoppers expect no change to the number of subscriptions they use. While some anticipate cutting back, others expect to subscribe to more services or try subscriptions for the first time. Paxon_ a third expect no change…
With the new subscription rules scheduled for January 2027, the findings suggest businesses should prepare for a mixed response rather than assume demand will fall across the board. The published parliamentary timetable lists 1 January 2027 as the coming-into-force date.
A mixed outlook, not a subscription exodus
Among the findings reported from the research, 6% expect to sign up to more subscriptions, while 3% said they might begin using subscriptions for the first time.
However, 14% expect to use fewer subscriptions and 3% say they may cancel them all. A further 15% are unsure how the new rules will affect their preferences. Paxon_ a third expect no change…
For retailers, this is a reason to plan carefully, not to assume either uninterrupted growth or widespread cancellations. These are consumers’ expectations, rather than confirmed changes in purchasing behaviour, and they do not translate directly into a forecast for any individual brand.
Commenting on the findings, Andrew Scanlon, Head of Sales & Marketing at Paxon, said:
“There has been a lot of concern about what easier cancellation will mean for subscription businesses, but our research suggests the picture may be more mixed. A third of consumers expect to continue using the same number of subscriptions, so retailers should not assume demand will fall across the board.” Paxon_ a third expect no change…
An active subscription does not guarantee the next order
The operational question is not simply how many subscribers a business has. It is how many orders those subscribers are likely to generate, when they will arrive and which products they will contain.
As Scanlon explains, customers can skip deliveries, change their frequency or cancel. Subscriber totals therefore need to be considered alongside actual purchasing behaviour when forecasting demand. Paxon_ a third expect no change…
For subscription fulfilment, the practical implication is to bring subscription activity, order history, sales trends and planned campaigns into the same planning conversation. Together, these provide a more useful basis for decisions about inventory, warehouse capacity and delivery requirements. Paxon_ a third expect no change…
Paxon’s system and software integrations connect eCommerce platforms, marketplaces, business systems and carriers, helping order, inventory and tracking information move between them. For subscription brands, the relevant data flows and handling of customer changes should be agreed as part of the integration scope.
Younger adults show greater appetite for subscriptions
The research also found differences between age groups.
Among adults aged 18–24, 12% expected to sign up to more subscription services, compared with the reported overall figure of 6%. That suggests retailers should consider how demand may differ across customer groups, rather than apply a single assumption to their entire subscriber base. Paxon_ a third expect no change…
For planning purposes, this is a prompt to examine a brand’s own customer behaviour. The survey does not predict how any particular product range will perform, but it highlights why a forecast built solely around an assumed rise in cancellations could overlook opportunities elsewhere.
Subscription changes are part of a wider shift in shopping behaviour
The research also explored where consumers expect to shop.
Online shoppers who expected to buy less through retailer and brand websites over the following 12 months were asked where they would be most likely to purchase items previously bought directly from those websites.
Within that group, 30% selected online marketplaces such as Amazon, eBay and Temu. Mobile shopping apps were selected by 14%, while 13% chose search engine shopping features. These figures relate to that specific group, not to all UK adults. Paxon_ a third expect no change…
Separately, 18% of all UK adults said AI shopping assistants and social commerce platforms would reduce the number of retailer and brand websites they visit to make a purchase. Paxon_ a third expect no change…
For brands, the implication is that demand may change location as well as volume. Looking only at direct website orders or subscriber numbers could leave part of the picture out.
Paxon’s omnichannel fulfilment services bring inventory, order preparation and returns together across direct-to-consumer, retail and marketplace channels. This gives businesses a way to manage different order flows within a coordinated operation.
Plan around expected orders, not assumptions
The findings do not suggest subscription businesses should ignore the possibility of customers cutting back. They suggest that the response is likely to be more varied than a simple rise or fall in subscriber numbers.
A practical planning response is to review subscription changes alongside confirmed orders, recent sales and upcoming marketing activity. That gives commercial and fulfilment teams a shared basis for deciding what stock to hold, how much capacity to prepare and where delivery requirements may change.
As Scanlon noted:
“That means bringing together subscription activity, actual order history, sales trends and planned marketing campaigns. With a realistic view of expected orders, fulfilment teams can make better decisions about inventory, warehouse capacity and delivery requirements.” Paxon_ a third expect no change…
Paxon’s logistics and fulfilment services support receiving, storage, picking, packing, dispatch and returns, alongside value-added activities such as kitting and packaging. These capabilities provide the operational foundation for subscription brands responding to changes in order volumes and customer preferences.
The priority for 2027 is not to assume every subscription will remain unchanged, or that easier cancellation will lead to a mass departure. It is to understand what customers actually choose to order and prepare the operation accordingly.
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About the research
The findings are from online YouGov research involving more than 2,000 UK adults aged 18 and over. Respondent groups vary by question and are identified alongside the findings above. The figures presented are selected findings, not a complete breakdown of every survey response. Paxon_ a third expect no change… Paxon_ a third expect no change…
The research was covered by Home of Direct Commerce.